Geopolitics & Strategy
09 March 2026
Morocco as an ark of strategic resilience
K
Khaled Hamadé
IIEG Expert
The American-Israeli crisis against Iran from February-March 2026 revealed the vulnerability of the major global energy and logistics balances. The tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have been interpreted by the markets as a risk of blockage (traffic disruptions, additional insurance costs, re-routing, etc.), resilience no longer depends only on power, but also on the capacity to diversify its routes, its partners and its support bases. In this new configuration, Morocco appears as an increasingly credible space of stability, interconnection and strategic projection.
A regional crisis with systemic effects
The American-Israeli war against Iran from February-March 2026 constitutes much more than a military episode confined to the Middle East. It acted as a brutal revealer of the fragilities of the regional security and energy architecture, while accelerating the erosion of a strategic model long associated with Pax Americana. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a global economic shock. The barrel of Brent exceeded 114 dollars [1], maritime freight costs rose sharply and global financial markets suffered a sharp decline. Among the most notable indicators, the South Korean KOSPI stock index lost up to 12%, while the Japanese Nikkei fell by around 2% and the Dow Jones lost almost 400 points [2]. At the same time, rising tensions have caused gas prices to soar in Europe, which have increased by 50% since March 2 [4]. The economic consequences have also affected other sectors, notably tourism in the Gulf countries, where projections suggest a potential loss of 56 billion dollars and up to 38 million fewer visitors for the year 2026 [5]. Finally, the direct costs of the conflict illustrate the extent of the economic pressures generated by the war. According to some estimates, the Israeli economy would bear a cost of approximately $2.9 billion per week linked to military operations and economic disruption [6].The shock of 2026 or the end of certainties
The sequence of Israel-Iran escalation (with American involvement) has gone beyond the regional framework to establish itself as a real geopolitical shock with systemic effects. It highlighted the limits of a system based both on the centrality of a single energy corridor – the Strait of Hormuz – and on a security architecture largely backed by the United States. This reading is debated: some see that the $2,000 billion in investments promised to the United States may appear less as the price of lasting protection than as the cost of a strategic dependence that has become more uncertain [3]. This shock is not simply cyclical. It reveals a structural transformation. It requires us to rethink the very concept of economic security. For economies whose prosperity relies on the fluid circulation of hydrocarbons and the stability of trade routes, the diversification of logistical and strategic anchorages now becomes an imperative.Morocco, a pole of stability in an uncertain environment
In this changing landscape, Morocco stands out through a set of attributes that reinforce its credibility as a space of continuity and strategic projection. Its geopolitical value is not only due to its geographical position. It is based on a model combining institutional stability, efficient infrastructure, multidimensional diplomacy and transnational human capital.Consolidated political stability
The dynastic continuity and the long-term strategic vision carried by the Monarchy give Morocco continuity in public policies in the region. This stability constitutes a determining factor for long-cycle strategic investments.World-class logistics infrastructure
This port architecture is expected to be strengthened with the rise in power of the port of Nador West Med, located in the bay of Betoya, approximately 30 km west of the city of Nador. Designed as a new generation deep-water port, it is destined to become one of the main logistics and energy hubs in the Western Mediterranean. Its container component provides for an initial capacity of around 3 million TEUs, expandable to 5 million TEUs over time. Taken together, Tanger Med, Nador West Med and Dakhla Atlantique gradually shape a true strategic Moroccan port arc, connecting the Mediterranean, the Strait of Gibraltar and the Atlantic. This increases the value of Morocco as a workaround and continuity solution in the event of stress on the Hormuz–Red Sea–Suez corridors. A multidimensional diplomacy Morocco also stands out for its ability to dialogue with several power centers. It has been a major non-NATO ally of the United States since 2004, a privileged partner of the European Union and a growing player in African integration through the Atlantic Initiative. At the same time, it maintains close relations with China and Russia [9].Transnational human capital
Financial transfers from Moroccans living abroad reached $12.9 billion in 2024, or more than 8% of the national GDP [10]. Beyond their economic dimension, these flows demonstrate the depth of the links between the diaspora and the national economy.
Three scenarios for the next 6 to 18 months
In such an uncertain environment, the scenario method makes it possible to structure the analysis.The first scenario is that of a contained conflict.
In this hypothesis, military tensions remain mainly limited to the confrontation between Iran and Israel, without major extension to other regional actors. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz remain intermittent, causing regular tensions on energy markets and maritime insurance costs. Oil flows are not permanently interrupted but remain exposed to high security risks. In this context, energy prices remain high and volatile, oscillating around 100 to 120 dollars per barrel, without lastingly crossing critical thresholds for the global economy.The second scenario is that of regional escalation.
In this more critical configuration, the conflict is gradually widening by more directly involving certain Gulf actors and their strategic infrastructures. Attacks on energy installations, ports or maritime routes are increasing, leading to a prolonged or partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a third of global maritime oil trade passes. Such a situation would cause a major energy shock and could propel oil prices well beyond $130 or $150 per barrel, generating high global energy inflation, financial market tensions and a real risk of a global economic slowdown.The third scenario is that of precarious stabilization.
In this hypothesis, international mediation – potentially supported by several powers or international organizations – manages to establish a fragile ceasefire between the parties. Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually resuming, allowing for relative relaxation in energy markets. Oil prices could then stabilize in a range between $90 and $110 per barrel. However, this stabilization remains structurally fragile: distrust between regional actors persists and states and companies are continuing their strategies of diversifying trade and logistics routes in order to reduce their exposure to future geopolitical shocks.What strategic implications?
Faced with these uncertainties, several directions appear possible. Mapping of strategic orientations Horizon 0 – 3 months: security and operational continuity In the immediate phase, the priority is to reduce exposure to logistical and energy disruptions caused by regional instability. Economic and institutional actors must focus on securing trade flows and diversifying operational bases. Several actions can be considered:- Building security logistics capacities at Tanger Med, making it possible to secure trade flows to Europe and Africa and to anticipate possible disruptions in supply chains.
- Strategic audit of logistics and energy chains, to identify critical dependencies linked to the Gulf and Red Sea shipping routes.
- Partial relocation of strategic functions (logistics management, finance, regional supervision) to stable hubs like Casablanca Finance City.
- Reinforcement of strategic stocks for sensitive sectors (energy, raw materials, industrial components).
- Development of industrial and logistical partnerships around Moroccan infrastructures (Tangier Med, Nador West Med and industrial platforms).
- Targeted investments in Moroccan economic zones, particularly in the industrial, agri-food and pharmaceutical sectors, in order to strengthen regional production capacities.
- Establishment of pilot projects in the energy transition, particularly in the green hydrogen sector, an area in which Morocco aims to mobilize 1 million hectares and $35 billion in investments [11].
- Structuring alternative logistics corridors linking the Atlantic, Europe and Africa.
- Creation of joint investment vehicles intended to finance infrastructure and industrialization projects in Africa.
- Strengthening Atlantic economic corridors, linking Morocco to emerging African markets and transatlantic trade routes.
- Development of regional industrial ecosystems around strategic sectors: energy, logistics, automotive industry, agro-industry and green technologies.
- Institutionalization of a long-term economic and strategic dialogue between public and private partners in order to anticipate future geopolitical transformations.
Resilience as a new strategic grammar
The crisis of 2026 constitutes an inflection point. She reminds us that security architectures based on too concentrated dependencies inevitably become fragile. In this context, resilience is no longer limited to the ability to resist crises. It is now based on the ability to organize relays of stability, to multiply anchor points and to diversify economic routes. Through its institutional stability, the quality of its infrastructure, the flexibility of its diplomacy and the depth of its human and economic networks, Morocco appears to be one of the most credible spaces to support this transition. In a world where the major maritime routes – from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, from the Suez Canal to the Strait of Gibraltar – are once again becoming spaces of strategic tension, the capacity to organize alternative logistical continuities becomes a determining factor of economic stability. Through the complementarity of its port infrastructures, from Tanger Med to Nador West Med and up to the future port of Dakhla Atlantique, Morocco is gradually positioning itself as one of the pivots of this new geography of flows. At the crossroads of the Mediterranean, the Atlantic and African dynamics, it tends to embody a true arch of strategic resilience, capable of articulating new trade routes in an increasingly fragmented international system. As Ibn Khaldoun wrote, history does not repeat itself but it teaches. The lesson of this crisis is perhaps the following: in a more fragmented world, strategic autonomy depends less on raw power than on the ability to build lasting continuities.References
[1] Reuters. (2026). Oil prices surge above $110 as Middle East tensions threaten Strait of Hormuz shipping.https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ [2] Financial Times. (2026). Global markets slide as Middle East conflict rattles investors.
https://www.ft.com [4] The World. (2026, March 5). War in the Middle East: the mechanics of a new economic shock are in place. https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/03/05/guerre-en-iran-la-mecanique-d-un-nouveau-choc-economique-est-en-place_6669595_3234.html [5] BFM TV. (2026, March 4). Up to 38 million fewer visitors and $56 billion in lost revenue in 2026. https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/international/until-38-millions-of-visitors-in-minus-and-56-billion-de-dollars-de-miss eu-to-win-in-2026-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east-threatens-the-lucrative-tourism-sector-in-the-gulf_AV-202603040534.html [6] Arab News. (2026, March 4). Damage to Israeli economy from Iran war could top $2.9 billion a week. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2635242 [7] Tangier Med. Port and Logistics Center. https://www.tangermed.ma/fr/pole-portuaire-et-logistique/ Gulf: the Iran–United States war puts an end to fifty years of Pax Americana