Geopolitics & Strategy
04 November 2025
Moroccan Sahara: the new UN resolution places the European Union at a strategic crossroads
P
Pôle Analyse et Résolution des Conflits de l\'IIEG
IIEG Expert
The adoption, on October 30, 2025, of resolution S/2025/692 by the United Nations Security Council marks a historic inflection in the governance of the Moroccan Sahara issue.
By explicitly consecrating the Moroccan Autonomy Initiative (presented in 2007) as the only serious and credible basis to achieve a negotiated political solution, the international community has chosen political realism and lasting peace. This development places the European Union (EU) before a major strategic responsibility: aligning itself with UN legitimacy and the international dynamic driven by the United States, the Gulf countries, and the majority of the African continent. Refusing this alignment would amount to maintaining an ambiguity incompatible with the principles of coherence and global partnership that the EU claims in its external action.A historical and legal turning point in the processing of the file
resolution S/2025/692 is not limited to extending the mandate of MINURSO. It introduces a real rereading of the political process, in a triple movement of clarification, refocusing and accountability.The legal consecration of the Moroccan Autonomy Initiative
Since its presentation in April 2007, the Moroccan autonomy plan has gradually gained international recognition. Described on numerous occasions by the Security Council as “serious and credible” (Res. 1754, 1783, 1813, 1979, 2099, 2468, 2602, 2654), it is now established as an exclusive reference in resolution S/2025/692. This development marks the definitive marginalization of the referendum option, deemed unrealistic by the UN since the report by James Baker II (2004)[1]. “The self-determination referendum, in current conditions, has become a diplomatic fiction. Autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only viable framework for stability.” — Extract from the report of the Secretary-General to the Security Council, 2025[2]. The text of the resolution is therefore part of a rational continuity: it consolidates the approach of “realistic, pragmatic and sustainable political solution” as expressed in the resolutions after 2018, but crosses a threshold by elevating autonomy to the rank of exclusive solution.Explicit recognition of Algeria’s role
Another major innovation: the Security Council now designates Algeria as a stakeholder in the process. This recognition breaks with the diplomatic rhetoric which presented it as a simple “neighboring state”. It endorses a geopolitical reading of the conflict based on direct regional responsibility and not on a colonial abstraction. This development puts an end to a diplomatic asymmetry long exploited to delay the political process.The doctrine of political realism
Resolution S/2025/692 reaffirms that the solution must be “mutually acceptable”, but specifies that autonomy “constitutes the most realistic and achievable path”. This formulation, supported by the United States, France and the United Arab Emirates, reflects the consolidation of an international consensus around realism, going against the ideological postures of the 20th century.The Moroccan Sahara: from diplomacy to territorial governance
Beyond the UN framework, the credibility of the Moroccan position is based on an irrefutable reality on the ground: that of a peaceful, structured territory, and fully integrated into the national development model.The southern provinces: a model of stability and development
The New Development Model of the Southern Provinces, launched by His Majesty King Mohammed VI in 2015, mobilized more than 80 billion dirhams around structuring axes:- Atlantic port of Dakhla, future hub between Africa and Europe;
- Wind and solar parks in Laâyoune, Boujdour and Aftissat;
- Seawater desalination plants and sustainable irrigation projects;
- Roads and air links integrating the region into the national logistics network.